The TDP

With the NHL Trade Deadline just 1 week away, and some small trades starting to take place and set the market, I figured now would be a good time to have some fun and write up some Flames predictions.

I have no inside information within the organization, as you will soon see from some of these proposals. I’m just a guy who follows the Flames and likes to watch hockey, but I think there could be an opportunity this year for the Flames to do more than just ship out expiring contracts for picks.

It’s getting to the point where the Flames need more immediate help if they want to take advantage of their young core. Adding a pick that won’t be able to help until 4-5 years from now, if ever, isn’t the worst thing in the world but it definitely shouldn’t be the Flames top priority. If they can find a couple pieces now that they see as longer-term solutions, now’s the time to grab them. Get new players introduced to the system and their new teammates early, and try to get a head start on next season.

This could be a very important Trade Deadline for the Flames in the long run.

1. Kris Russell is traded to Pittsburgh

Up until now I truly believed that the Flames would actually re-sign Kris Russell. Not that I think re-signing him was better than trading him or anything, it was always just my gut feeling on the matter.

With how hard it is to find defensemen who can play well at this level, with Russell being an Alberta boy, and the Flames wanting to solidify their defense-core long term, I figured that there very well could have been a deal to be made here. Heck, there still could be. Who knows what happens between now and July 1^st, but I’m starting to believe that Russell will be traded.

So what’s changed?

Well the Wideman suspension is one thing that’s changed. Even without his 20 game suspension a Dennis Wideman trade was going to be hard to hammer out. Now that he is suspended it’s almost a certainty he will, at the very least, finish the season as a Flame.

Ladislav Smid has also taken another trip to the IR and, depending on the severity, that could be the end of any trade value he had created with his solid play throughout the season.

The Flames have too much money tied up defensively, and signing Russell commits even more money to the blueline for next season. With them having a limited ability to trade other large contracts clogging up their bottom 3 defensive spots, it doesn’t make sense to sign Russell now.

Where could he go? I have my eye on the Penguins personally.

Kris Russell to the Penguins for Matt Murray.

Why the Penguins do it: Pittsburgh is an interesting case. Jim Rutherford has shown in the past that he is willing to trade futures to help the Penguins win now, and it makes sense as they have 2 of the best players in the world in Crosby and Malkin. The team needs another top 4 defender and has reportedly contacted the Flames about making a trade for Russell since as early as last year’s trade deadline. This might be the year they get him.

For the Flames this could be their opportunity to grab a young, top notch goaltending prospect in Matt Murray. According to most out there, this year’s draft isn’t nearly as deep as last years. If I’m the Flames then I'm going to try to start squaring away my goaltending duo for next season, instead of adding more picks.

2. The Flames ship out Deryk Engelland

As I mentioned earlier, the Flames already have too much money tied up in the blueline. Ideally the team would probably want to ship out Wideman and Smid to alleviate that pressure, but with Wideman’s status up in the air, and Smid taking another trip to the IR, moving Engelland may be the only course of action for Brad Treliving.

Engelland is a solid defensive defender who is slightly overpaid but only has 1 year left on his deal after this year and is a solid bottom pairing guy who can slip into the top 4 in times of crisis. The Flames may try and target a goalie with a larger salary and maybe even longer term. Grabbing a young guy like Matt Murray goes a long way to solving some goaltending questions, but you can’t put all your eggs into one, unproven, basket. The Flames would probably still like 1 more guy who can act as a buffer for their young goalies.

Flames send Deryk Engelland to the Jets for Ondrej Pavelec.

Why the Jets do it: The Jets have young goaltenders Michael Hutchinson and Connor Hellebuyck ready to, at the very least, be a 1A/1B tandem in the crease. They also have Pavelec signed for another year at a $3.9M cap hit, but have to pay him $4.75M in actual salary. The Jets are a budget team and would probably like to avoid paying that if they can.

Engelland is a big body for their bottom pairing who can step into the top 4 if needed. He also has some experience playing forward in the team ever needs to dress 7 defenders.

3. The Flames make a legitimate hockey trade

The Flames seemingly have a log jam of similar forwards in a bottom 6 role that are young and still have potential, but have yet to consistently put it all together. Guys like Joe Colborne, Mikael Backlund, Markus Granlund, and Josh Jooris have all show flashes of brilliance while struggling to consistently put up points.

My guess is that the team will part ways with Markus Granlund. He is the youngest of the group and probably has the most potential, but for me he’s a lot of what this team already has.

He’s a center but is probably better suited on the wing since he is bad at face-offs. He’s speedy and smart, has good hands and uses his line-mates well. He has a good motor that gives, but he is still rather inconsistent and can get pushed around easily. The Flames have lots of those guys, so I could see the Flames ship out a package around Markus Granlund for a similar value prospect who brings something a little different to the table.

Flames trade Markus Granlund to the Stars for Brett Ritchie.

The Flames have been linked to liking Ritchie in the past. He also happens to fill a big need on the Flames team as a big, right handed Power Forward with top 6 potential. On paper he looks like the perfect guy to pair with Johnny and Mony.

Why the Stars do it: The Stars in general are just a very deep, and young team so they shouldn’t feel pressured to move anyone. However, adding Granlund would add another smart versatile forward who can play in any and all situations. They may even be able to get the Flames to add to the deal, giving them more incentive to consider a swap of prospects.

Update: Flames have traded Markus Granlund to Vancouver for Hunter Shinkaruk.

4. Hudler will end up in California

Jiri Hudler has been an absolutely amazing professional ever since joining the Flames and he has taken on a leadership role for them since the rebuild started. He is a very good professional who the young guys can come in and emulate.

I’ve been a big fan of Hudler since he joined the Flames and watching him leave is going to be sad. But life goes on, and this is a business and *insert more clichés here*. Simply put the Flames are in no position to give Hudler the type of contract he will be looking for and with the Flames well outside a playoff spot and Hudler a UFA at seasons end, a move just has to be made.

Over the years a handful of teams within Calgary’s division have gotten to see Jiri Hudler up close and personal. Namely the Kings, who Hudler had a monster game against last year to eliminate the Kings from playoff contention and clinched a playoff berth for the hometown heroes. The other team is the Anahiem Ducks, who the Flames battled against in the second round of the playoffs last year.

With the Kings losing Gaborik for the rest of the regular season, and the Ducks struggling offensively for most of the season, I suspect these 2 teams will be right at the top of the list of teams who are interested in adding Hudler at the deadline.

It’s hard to say what the return for Hudler would be. The market for top 6 wingers still hasn’t been set yet, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Flames are able to acquire a decent young prospect OR a couple of picks in the top 90 of this year’s draft.

So there you have it. My completely uninformed, ignorant, and soon to be proven wrong Trade Deadline Predictions. Now that I’ve built up a busy deadline for the Flames, they’ll probably sit on their hands and do nothing.

Different Philosophies

The Calgary Flames coaching staff has taken some heat recently over their reluctance to play freshly called up Jakub Nakladal in the wake of the Dennis Wideman suspension. People see a last place team who have struggled with inconsistency all year, and feel that it's time for the team to start playing young guys, and I don't necessarily think they're wrong with that notion either.

However, the Flames locker room has to believe they can make the play-off's until the day they are mathematically eliminated.

First I'll address the Nakladal situation. For most of the season there have been people clamouring for Dennis Wideman to be benched, as he has had an awful year, and for the team to play both Deryk Engelland and Ladislav Smid, who have both had very solid seasons alternating as the 6th defensemen. Now that Wideman is in the pressbox due to suspension, and Engelland and Smid are both drawing into the lineup, there's animosity towards the coaching staff for their lack of desire to just throw Nakladal into the fire.

So this proves a couple things.

One is that you seriously cannot please all of the people all of the time, and in some cases you can't please someone no matter what you do.

The other is that the coaching staff still believes this team can make it, and they should. They are playing the 6 best defensemen they have, and 6 guys that most would agree have been good for most of the season. (First month of the season excluded where almost everyone was awful)

Belief is an invisible force. You can't touch it or see it, but you can feel it. It has the power to get the best out of people and that's what Bob Hartley is trying to do with this team. That's what he is paid to do. They've dug themselves a rather large hole and they'll only get out of it if they believe that they can because, quite frankly, no one else will.

The team and the coaching staff need to focus on the here and now. Believe in themselves, go out and get some wins. Who knows, maybe they'll catching lightning in a bottle and make a run out of it. Regardless of the outcome this team needs to finish the season off with some pride.

Management, however, doesn't get that luxury as they have to keep the bigger picture in mind.

Here's the bigger picture.

The Flames goaltenders have, on most nights, been the second best goalie on the ice. The Flames special teams have been god awful. The Flames have been owned in the faceoff dot on most nights and their offense has been completely inconsistent all season.

The Flames brass have to be intellectually honest with themselves.

Now, I know what you're thinking. "Fuck you Rye, I thought we've moved on past these bullshit cliches."

Don't worry, I don't plan on bringing up "post apex" or "truculent"...yet...

But it's completely true. This is a young and flawed team. With the exception of Mark Giordano, this team's best players are also some of its youngest players, and I doubt any of this is a surprise to management. Some of the answers will come from within, as some of the young players grow and get better. Some of the answers will have to come from outside the organization.

If the Flames catch lightning in a bottle and find a way to make the playoffs, does that mean that management should change the plan? Hell no.

If the Flames find a way to make the play-off's should they hand an extension to the goalie who gets them there? Hell god damn no!

Hiller and Ramo have been battling in the crease for close to 2 years now, and since joining the Flames neither of them has proven to be: a) Better than the other and b) Capable of being a true number one over the course of a season.

Time to move on and find someone who will give Calgary more consistent goaltending.

The other night the Flames played against the Columbus Blue Jackets and completely outplayed them, only to lose 2-1.

"But Rye" you might say, "the offense only scored 1 goal. The goals that Ramo let in were the result of defensive zone breakdowns and not his fault at all! You're not going to win games scoring only 1 goal and giving the other team quality chances."

Hey, I agree with you. But here's the thing. Hockey is a game of mistakes, and had Ramo not been the second best goalie on the ice that night the Flames probably walk away with at least one point. It's as simple as that.

The Flames need to find the goalie that will give them the best chance to win every night, and that probably isn't going to be Hiller or Ramo, and so it's time to move on. If management can somehow find a way get a goalie before the deadline and  get him some playing time heading into next season then this team will put themselves in a much better situation for next season than they did heading into this season.

Calgary's special teams have been awful this year and if this team had the ability to score some more PP goals while keeping a couple out of their own net they'd probably be in a very different position right now.

Management needs to get the best assets it can for expiring contracts. Hudler and Jones are almost guarantees to be gone. There's talk that the Flames would like to re-sign Russell, but it's hard to tell if that's just lip service to extract the most value or if the team truly thinks it can add another long term money deal to a team that have 6 defenders already making 3 million dollars or more for at least another season.

And just because the Flames move on from their pending UFA's at the deadline doesn't mean the door is closed forever. Teams have traded UFA's only to re-sign them in the off-season.

Get some value for these guys, see if you can find a long term fit on RW or in net, find a couple bodies who might help on the PP, move some defensive dollars around, and see if there are any answers within the organization. I suspect this will be managements philosophy between now and the beginning of next season.

But until the Flames are officially eliminated from the play-offs, the locker room and everyone in it still has to believe.

Zero Tolerance or Double Standard?

Imagine for a second that you're a hockey player. A good one. One good enough to play in the NHL.
One day during a game you go to play the puck along the boards in your own zone, and end up taking a hit and smacking your head on the boards. Head throbbing, shoulder on pins and needles, you get up off the ice, tap your stick to let your team mates know you're coming for a change and start heading for the bench. You see your team mate sitting on the boards waiting for you to get close enough for him to change, so you put your head down and labour to the bench as fast as you can.

Then, when you're head is down, the linesman cuts into your path. You don't see him till the last second, try to side-step, and when a collision is unavoidable you instinctively throw your hands up to protect yourself, as you've been taught to do since you were a child just learning how to play.

This is the life of Dennis Wideman.

Today Dennis Wideman was suspended for 20 games for this this incident.

From that angle the hit looks pretty bad. Much has been said since the hit happened, with most people on one side of the fence or the other, and very few in between.

Some people seem to think that Dennis Wideman, in a fit of rage and frustration, skated up behind the referee and cross checked him. I don't for a second believe that Dennis Wideman purposely tried to hit a referee from behind. Mostly because the man has been nothing but even keeled since he's been here. He never gets to high, never gets too low. I've seen him take big hits before and I've never seen him show any sort of frustration.

This hit happened in the first game of last season. Wideman was having himself a particularity shitty game when that hit happened. He skated to the bench after that hit, sniffed himself some smelling salts, and collected  his breathe. While he did these things I remember thinking to myself "Maybe that'll wake your ass up". It didn't, and the Flames lost that game.

The worst thing about Wideman is he has a serious lack of emotion in the game, but that can also be the best part of his game. He remains calm when under pressure and that helped turn his season around and helped make him one of the Flames better defenders as he helped lead the Flames to the playoffs. In fact the most emotion I've ever seen from Wideman on the ice is when they determined this was a goal. (His celebration is around 1 minute.)

That calmness also leads me to believe that Wideman in fact did not get up in frustration and run the ref over.

There are other reasons why I believe he didn't do this on purpose. Since joining the Flames Dennis Wideman has carried himself with class and has been one of the most respected leaders in the Flames dressing room. He has never once been suspended in his 11 year career. He has only had more than 40 PIM's in a season once since 2008-2009 season. There's also this alternate view which looks a lot less deliberate than the angle from behind.

OK, so we've established why I believe that this was an accident and not a predatory hit. What about the punishment?

Personally, after the hit I figured the NHL would suspend Wideman 10 games. I figured the NHL would come out and say something along the lines of "Yes, it was incidental contact but players have to be aware of everyone on the ice and you cannot run over a ref like that." There may have been some moaning and groaning, not from me mind you, and everyone would have just shrugged and moved on.

The skinny of it is Wideman has been absolutely terrible this year, as have the Flames for the most part, so when he was pegged to be suspended I started to get excited about the playing time that would be made available for younger players. (The Flames have recalled Nakladal to take his place on the roster.)

But 20 games? I have a serious problem with that. To me the NHL suspending Wideman for 20 games means that they feel that Wideman purposely and maliciously hit an vulnerable referee from behind.

Dennis Wideman's is a good person, who found himself at the wrong end of a hit and then not long after that in the wrong place at the wrong time. Now he has had his name and reputation dragged through the mud and he is being thrown under the bus by the NHL, and that, quite frankly, is not fair.

One argument that I hear is "zero tolerance" for hitting a referee, and hey, you won't get any argument from me for that! I completely and whole-heartedly agree. Which is why the NHL suspended Yannick Weber for this incident, Jannik Hansen for this incident, and Jake Muzzin for this incident. Milan Lucic punched a ref right in the mouth the same night that Wideman ran over a linesman, he's a superstar and even he had to face the music of NHL justice...

Oh, wait. They didn't? Not a single one of them got a single game for their incidental contact of the referee? What about zero tolerance?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that any of those guys went out of their way to hit the ref. I mean they're all accident's of course. Only Dan Carcillo is dumb enough to intentionally attack a referee.

But zero tolerance is clearly not a standard that has been set by the NHL and I don't see why they have to over-reach and hand someone who has been a model NHL citizen a 20 game suspension for an accident.

Todd Bertuzzi almost killed someone on the ice and got a 20 game suspension for christs sake.

But perhaps I'm just viewing this with my Flames coloured glasses.